Market Insights
Dubai Property Price Predictions 2026 – Oversupply or Smart Opportunities?
The Dubai property market has always been one of the most closely watched real estate landscapes in the world. End users, developers, and investors ar...
The Dubai property market has always been one of the most closely watched real estate landscapes in the world. End users, developers, and investors ar...
IM Properties is a leading real estate company in ...
Dubai’s real estate market has always been one of the most closely watched in the world. From end-users and investors to developers, every market participant keeps an eye on transaction volumes, price trends, and the city’s supply pipeline. As we approach 2026, two dominant themes are shaping investor and buyer sentiment: oversupply risks and a potential property price correction.
While Dubai continues to witness strong investor appetite and off-plan launches, the 2025 market has already shown early signs of transformation. Buyer behavior is evolving, rental growth is moderating, and a record wave of unit deliveries is looming on the horizon. The question is, will oversupply drive prices down, or is Dubai’s growth story set to continue with minimal disruption? This comprehensive blog explores these dynamics in depth, drawing on published H1 2025 data and external forecasts rather than providing guarantees, combining H1 2025 data, supply projections, price forecasts, rental trends, and district-level insights to help investors make informed decisions.
Dubai’s property market in H1 2025 has been a story of strong growth with early signs of moderation, particularly in pricing and rents. Understanding the gap between forecast and reality provides a clearer picture of the market heading into 2026.
Real estate expert with extensive knowledge of Ajman's property market. Helping clients make informed investment decisions for over 10 years.
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Forecast: Analysts predicted a healthy transaction flow driven by new launches and high liquidity, with residential sales projected to rise steadily.
Reality: The market exceeded expectations. Residential sales in H1 2025 reached approximately AED 326.7 billion across 99,000 transactions, representing a remarkable 40% year-on-year growth. Q2 2025 alone recorded AED 184 billion in sales, a new quarterly record and roughly 49% higher than Q2 2024.
Villas and apartments together accounted for AED 262.7 billion, up 38% YoY, while the deal volume rose around 23%. Apartment transactions jumped from 63,300 to 73,600 deals (+16%), with transaction value up approximately 21% between Q1 and Q2.
Modi, Dubai Market Analyst, notes, “Dubai’s liquidity remains robust, and the end-user demand is increasingly driving the market rather than pure speculation.”
Forecast: Price growth was expected to moderate after strong 2024 gains, with prime areas leading the appreciation.
Reality: Prices have continued to rise, albeit in a tiered pattern:
This data highlights scarcity-driven growth in prime zones, steady gains in core apartments, and slower but stable growth in mid-market segments.
Oversupply occurs when the number of units delivered outpaces the number of buyers or tenants. For example, if 30,000 new apartments are completed in a year, but only 20,000 units are demanded, developers face competition, leading to price adjustments and rent moderation.
Reality in H1 2025: Dubai’s market has absorbed much of the new supply so far, supported by strong end-user demand and off-plan confidence. However, the stage is set for localized pricing pressures, especially in apartment-heavy districts.
Dubai’s property market is maturing, balancing both forward-looking off-plan strategies and immediate-use secondary sales.
Insight: Investors are increasingly confident in off-plan opportunities, while the secondary market remains active, providing choices for immediate use or rental income.
According to market analysts, “Off-plan projects are no longer just speculative plays; they are a strategic part of a diversified investor portfolio.”
The supply surge is the key factor shaping Dubai’s 2026 outlook.
Projected Deliveries
Comparison with Historical Supply
Implications: Even conservative estimates represent a step-change in supply, increasing the potential for localized oversupply in apartment-heavy districts. Historical completion rates (50–60%) temper this risk, but selective price pressure is widely viewed as likely rather than guaranteed.
Dubai’s price growth in 2026 is expected to moderate yet remain resilient, segmented by property type and location. The figures below are indicative forecasts from various market reports, not certainties:
The rental market is showing signs of moderation:
According to market analysts, “The rental market is stabilizing, giving tenants more bargaining power, but prime zones remain highly profitable for investors.”
Dubai’s market is widely seen as shifting from speculation-driven to end-user driven:
Buy: Prime, green-certified, branded residences.
Strategy Tip: Diversify holdings across districts with strong infrastructure and population growth potential.
Dubai enters 2026 with:
Overall Outlook: Controlled recalibration rather than a crash. Careful property selection, timing, and location are more important than ever, and all projections should be viewed as scenario ranges rather than guarantees.
Dubai’s 2026 property market is not generally expected to crash, but localized price corrections are likely in oversupplied mid-market apartments. Prime, branded, and luxury properties are forecast to continue to show relatively stronger performance, supported by strong global demand and limited supply.
For buyers, this is an opportunity to enter at slightly corrected prices in certain segments. For investors, success depends on strategic location choices, monitoring delivery pipelines, and balancing off-plan and secondary market investments.
In summary, many analysts conclude that “Dubai is entering a controlled recalibration phase. Oversupply exists, but smart investors can navigate the market successfully by focusing on quality, location, and timing.”
Ready to invest? Dubai’s 2026 market offers opportunities for both end-users and seasoned investors — but careful planning is key. Contact IM Properties for expert guidance.
Looking to stretch your money in the UAE property market without compromising on location or returns? Ajman could be your best bet.This growing emirat...
Continue ReadingPrime/Luxury Growth | 4–6% prime; 8–10% luxury | Waterfront & branded residences |
Potential Correction | 5–15% in select oversupplied areas | Healthy “recalibration” |
Rental Yields | 5.5–7% (apartments) | Slight moderation but still attractive |
Ajman, one of the fastest-growing emirates in the UAE, is carving a space for itself as a hotspot for property investors and homebuyers seeking value,...
